Definitive AI Seminar
April 16-18, 2024 in Chicago
Register Here before March 1 and save $300!
Mel,
The Lindy Effect says that if something has been around for a certain period of time, it will probably CONTINUE to be around for at least that much longer.
Has a Broadway show been running for a year? Chances are good that it will be around for at least another year.
It's not an infallible rule, it works on the average. But it is a very good rule of thumb.
And it's a great way of thinking about how AI might change a particular industry or activity.
Let's use the Yellow Pages as an example.
In the 2000s, the Yellow Pages were decimated by search engines, online maps, and smartphones.
What did not change (The Lindy Effect)?
People looking for businesses.
What did change was the fact that you could search with 10-100x more specificity and get more detailed answers and context…a LOT faster.
It was a massive Simplification.
What exploded? What activity increased by at least 10X?
Well, one thing that increased more than 100X was the use of maps.
Today, people use "maps" even for short trips that they have taken many times.
Nobody could have predicted that.
So, it looks like AI is set to "decimate" search engines.
It's already happening. They are being replaced by ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc.
What will not change (the Lindy Effect)?
People searching for answers.
What will explode at least 10X?
The complexity and specificity of questions you can ask, and the context of the answers you will get. No need to phrase queries in "search engine language." Speed, accuracy and thoroughness of answers will all explode.
What new Star business may emerge from this explosion?
One educated guess: AI Powered Personal Assistants.
In my next newsletter I'll take a few other industries/activities through this process. And I'll do a webinar on this topic.
And this framework will be a part of my keynote address at the Exponential AI Seminar.
Register Here before March 1 and save $300!
Seize the day,
Perry
